Aerial view of villas and olive groves in the French Riviera hinterland with the Mediterranean coast visible in the distance

Market analysis

Riviera hinterland market report, mid-2026 (DVF to December 2025)

Sales volume, median prices and year-on-year trajectory across eight communes (Valbonne, Mougins, Biot, Grasse, Opio, Châteauneuf-de-Grasse, Le Rouret and Roquefort-les-Pins), sourced from the April 2026 DVF release (sales to December 2025) by the Direction Générale des Finances Publiques.

Author
La Reserve Research
Published
27 April 2026
Duration
14 min read

The market in five numbers

The eight communes covered by this report make up the whole premium villa belt of the Alpes-Maritimes hinterland: Valbonne, Mougins, Biot, Grasse, Opio, Châteauneuf-de-Grasse, Le Rouret and Roquefort-les-Pins. Between January 2021 and December 2025 the official DVF database records 1,164 house sales there at the level our clients buy: houses of 100 m² or more sold for €1M or more, or €700,000 or more in Le Rouret, where €1M+ sales are too few. December 2025 is the latest month DGFiP has published.

Five headline numbers frame this quarter’s market:

  • 220 sales in 2025 across the eight communes: 207 at €1M or more in seven towns, plus 13 at €700,000 or more in Le Rouret. Mougins alone accounts for 73 of them.
  • Mougins remains the price ceiling per square metre at a 2025 median of €10,073/m² for houses sold for €1M or more, up 14% on 2024, with a median sale price of €1,750,400.
  • Grasse is the value anchor on the same floor at €6,212/m² and a €1,279,750 median sale price, about 62% of the Mougins figure per square metre. It is up 13% since 2021 and down 9% in 2025.
  • Three of the seven towns on the €1M floor rose in 2025 (2024 to 2025 median €/m²): Biot, Mougins and Valbonne. Four fell, from −1% in Opio to −12% in Roquefort-les-Pins. Le Rouret rose 3% on its €700,000 floor.
  • Biot is the 2025 surprise at a €1,920,000 median sale price (21 sales), the highest of any commune in the sample, and €9,654/m², up 53% on a 14-sale 2024. The median plot behind those sales is 2,500 m².

The rest of this report unpacks the data commune by commune, then closes with practical implications for buyers and sellers heading into Q3 and Q4 2026.

Methodology and data sources

All transaction figures in this report come from DVF (Demandes de Valeurs Foncières), the official French real estate transactions database published twice a year by the Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP) under the Licence Ouverte 2.0 (Etalab). DVF records every property transaction lodged at notarial completion, including the sale price, surface, date and commune. The data used in this report comes from the April 2026 DVF release, the latest loaded when these figures were last regenerated, on 18 October 2026. It covers 2021 to 2025, and the latest recorded sale is dated 30 December 2025.

The figures are filtered to isolate the villa market our clients buy in: houses only, built surface ≥ 100 m², sales only, sale price €1M or more. One sale is one DVF mutation, counted once, and sales that also include an apartment or commercial premises are excluded. Le Rouret has too few €1M+ sales (3 in 2025), so its whole series uses €700,000 or more and is not ranked with the other seven.

What DVF prices include and exclude matters for interpretation. They include any seller-side agency fees built into the agreed price and VAT where applicable, but they exclude buyer-side agency fees and notaire fees (about 7% on a resale in the Alpes-Maritimes, where the 4.50% transfer tax was kept, and 2–3% on new build). A €1,000,000 DVF figure is therefore not what a buyer paid at the notaire. The all-in cost is closer to €1,070,000 after buyer-side acquisition costs.

Median prices are used throughout rather than averages. In a small-sample, high-variance market like Riviera villas, a single trophy sale pulls an average up sharply in a quarter. The median resists outliers far better and gives a truer reading of what the typical buyer is paying for the typical property.

The change since 2021 is the change in median €/m² between 2021 and 2025. Year-on-year change compares 2024 and 2025, the latest full-calendar pair. We publish a median only from 5 sales or more, and a change only when both years have at least 10 sales. DGFiP publishes five years of sales, so no ten-year change is available on this basis.

Since 2021: who moved most, and why

The picture since 2021 is what gives this report its frame of reference. Across the seven communes on the €1M floor, ranked by change in median €/m²:

  1. Biot +59%: from €6,053/m² in 2021 to €9,654/m² in 2025
  2. Valbonne +44%: from €6,250/m² to €8,986/m²
  3. Mougins +33%: from €7,556/m² to €10,073/m², the highest level in the sample
  4. Opio +26%
  5. Châteauneuf-de-Grasse +23%
  6. Roquefort-les-Pins +16%
  7. Grasse +13%: the slowest riser on this floor

Le Rouret, measured on its €700,000 floor, rose 22% since 2021, from €5,222/m² to €6,349/m². It is not ranked with the seven because its figures cover a lower price band.

Two patterns explain most of this dispersion. The first is depth. Mougins has the deepest €1M+ market, 73 sales in 2025, and it rose steadily from the highest base. Biot and Valbonne have far fewer sales at this level (21 and 25 in 2025), and in thin markets the price per square metre swings harder. In Biot the PLU restricts new villa construction in the historic perimeter, so the top end competes for a fixed pool. The second pattern is the value-chasing flow: buyers priced out of Mougins and Valbonne turned to Grasse and Roquefort-les-Pins, where €1M buys more house and more land (median plots of 3,557 m² and 2,950 m² in 2025). At this level those two markets grew more slowly, and both fell in 2025.

Biot deserves its own footnote. Its gain since 2021 is the largest, but the sample is small: 22 sales in 2021, 10 in 2023, 21 in 2025. The 53% jump in 2025 rests on 21 sales, so two or three estate sales move it a lot. Read Biot’s line since 2021, not its single year.

Valbonne

Valbonne recorded 121 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, the fourth-highest count in the sample after Mougins (428), Roquefort-les-Pins (140) and Grasse (131). The 2025 median sale price stands at €1,566,000 and the median €/m² at €8,986. The 2024→2025 change was +6% on €/m², and the change since 2021 is +44%, the second-highest of the seven towns on the €1M floor.

The year-by-year line is uneven. The median went from €6,250/m² in 2021 to €8,125/m² in 2022, eased to €7,292/m² in 2023 on only 18 sales, then climbed to €8,446/m² in 2024 and €8,986/m² in 2025. Sales at this level fell from 37 in 2022 to 16 in 2024 and recovered to 25 in 2025. This is a thin market where a handful of villa sales sets the median, so the direction since 2021 matters more than any one year.

For buyers, Valbonne in mid-2026 is no longer a discount entry. The 2025 median of €8,986/m² is the highest in the series since 2021. The village centre itself records too few sales at that level for a figure of its own. Buyers who expected the 2023 dip to last have seen it reverse. The case for Valbonne rests on Sophia Antipolis, the schools and the infrastructure investment already in the price (the Sophia Antipolis expansion and the bus-tram corridor), not on a pricing window. Our page on Valbonne property covers its sectors, schools and access.

Full DVF transaction history for Valbonne →

Mougins

Mougins is the largest market in the sample at 428 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, with the highest median €/m², €10,073 in 2025. Its 2025 median sale price is €1,750,400, second to Biot, and the change since 2021 is +33% on €/m². With 73 sales in 2025, it is also the one commune where the figures rest on a deep sample.

The 2024→2025 change was +14% on €/m², after a 5% dip in 2024. The series runs €7,556/m² in 2021, €8,215 in 2022, €9,245 in 2023, €8,809 in 2024 and €10,073 in 2025. Volume eased from 109 sales in 2021 to 68 in 2024 and recovered to 73. 2025 is the first year of the series above €10,000/m² at this level.

What is happening underneath the headline number is more interesting than the number itself. The Mougins market is segmenting, though the recorded sales are thinner than the talk. Of the sectors we map, only Saint-Basile (€7,857/m², 25 sales) and Notre-Dame-de-Vie (€7,109/m², 17 sales) have enough sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021–2025 for a figure, both below the town’s €8,636/m². Les Bréguières records one such sale. Mougins-le-Haut, mostly apartments and small houses, is a different market again. Buyers who frame Mougins as a single market will miss this. For a commune that already sets the price ceiling, the next twelve months are likely about sector mix rather than absolute price movement. Our page on Mougins property covers its sectors, schools and access.

Full DVF transaction history for Mougins →

Biot

Biot is the most interesting commune in the eight-town sample, and the easiest to misread from one number. 87 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, a 2025 median sale price of €1,920,000 and a median €/m² of €9,654, with a change since 2021 of +59%. On paper, Biot now leads the hinterland on growth.

The sample is what needs reading. Biot recorded 22 such sales in 2021, 20 in 2022, 10 in 2023, 14 in 2024 and 21 in 2025. The median €/m² went from €6,053 in 2021 to €7,395 in 2023, dipped to €6,322 in 2024, then jumped 53% to €9,654 in 2025. A jump that size on 21 sales says as much about which houses sold as about prices: the median plot behind the 2025 sales is 2,500 m², so larger estates weigh heavily in the figure.

The structural reason is the PLU. Biot’s land-use plan severely restricts new villa construction within the historic perimeter and on protected agricultural land, which limits supply growth. Buyers who want a Biot postcode increasingly compete for a fixed pool of village houses and discreet hillside parcels, pushing the per-m² premium for that subset well above the long-run average. The Biot of 2026 is two markets stitched together: a thin, expensive top tier and a thinning mid-market that is steadily being absorbed. Our page on Biot property covers its sectors, schools and access.

The commune has two faces. The perched old village, famous for its glassblowing workshops since the 1950s, is a cluster of sandstone houses and artisan studios that rarely change hands. Below and around it, the residential quarters towards the Sophia Antipolis border (Les Vignasses, the Clausonnes area) are where most family houses trade, and where the Sophia commute is shortest. The former Marineland site near the motorway is being reshaped after the park’s closure in January 2025, a project worth watching for anyone buying nearby.

Full DVF transaction history for Biot →

Grasse

Grasse is the hinterland’s value market. 131 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, a 2025 median sale price of €1,279,750 and a median €/m² of €6,212, with a change since 2021 of +13%. 2025 brought 30 sales at this level, the most since 2022, but the median €/m² fell 9% from €6,800 in 2024.

Two things to understand about Grasse. First, the commune is geographically vast and includes sub-markets that have little in common. The old town is a market of small village houses and limited supply. The hillside hamlets of Magagnosc and Saint-Jacques hold panoramic villas on more land, and at €1M or more they record the highest sector medians in the commune: €8,002/m² (14 sales) in Saint-Jacques and €6,903/m² (26 sales) in Magagnosc over 2021–2025, against €5,939/m² (21 sales) in Plascassier and €6,132/m² for the town. The rural plateau towards Cabris and Saint-Vallier sits at the other extreme (large parcels, longer commute). Even at €1M or more, the €1,279,750 median spans several of these sub-markets and should never be used to estimate a specific property.

Second, Grasse has picked up buyers priced out of Mougins and Valbonne over the past three years. Buyers who set out wanting a Mougins postcode and recoiled at the 2025 Mougins median of €10,073/m² for a €1M+ house often end up viewing in Magagnosc or Plascassier, where DVF puts the median for houses at that level at €6,903/m² and €5,939/m² over 2021–2025, for comparable build quality and an equivalent commute to Sophia Antipolis. That redirected demand drives the volume, but at this level it has not closed the gap: Grasse rose 13% since 2021 against 33% in Mougins. Where Grasse goes next depends on whether that price gap keeps drawing buyers. The 2025 volume, 30 sales, says it does. Our page on Grasse property covers its sectors, schools and access.

For a Parisian couple buying a weekend home, or a first-time hinterland buyer who wants to be inside the region rather than priced to its edge, Grasse is where the maths works. The flower festivals (ExpoRose in spring, the Fête du Jasmin in August) and the food markets give it a real year-round life. The risk to weigh is that parts of the centre are still being regenerated, so sector choice matters more in Grasse than in the smaller villages.

Full DVF transaction history for Grasse →

Opio

Opio is the smallest market by sale count in the sample (70 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, about 14 a year). The 2025 median sale price stands at €1,550,000 and the median €/m² at €8,593, a little below Valbonne’s €8,986 on a much smaller base. The change since 2021 is +26%.

The 2024→2025 change was −1% on €/m², essentially flat, after +14% in 2024. Yearly samples are thin, between 11 and 18 sales, and the median moves with them: €6,837/m² in 2021, €8,057 in 2022, €7,595 in 2023, €8,648 in 2024 and €8,593 in 2025. With so few sales, read the line since 2021 rather than any one year.

A small number of high-quality estates dominate Opio’s market, clustered around the Opio Golf Club and the rural lanes south of the village. The thin volume means a single estate sale moves the median sharply, which is why the 2022 and 2024 jumps did not hold the following year. For buyers, Opio shows why DVF medians on small samples need checking against active listings and what agents see on the ground. A single quarter rarely tells the full story. Our page on Opio property covers its sectors, schools and access.

Full DVF transaction history for Opio →

Châteauneuf-de-Grasse

Châteauneuf-de-Grasse sits in the middle of the sample on price per square metre. 95 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, a 2025 median sale price of €1,445,000 and a median €/m² of €8,705, with a change since 2021 of +23%. The 2024→2025 change was −8% on €/m², after a 34% jump in 2024 to €9,449.

The plots explain much of the price. The median plot behind the 2025 sales is close to 5,000 m², the largest of the eight communes, which matches what we see on the ground: proper villa construction on large land, often with a pool, at the upper end of the commune’s housing stock. Buyers pay for the land as much as the house, so the price per square metre of building swings with the plot mix from one year to the next, as the 2024 jump and the 2025 dip show.

Châteauneuf benefits from a combination that is hard to replicate elsewhere in the hinterland: a village people live in year-round, views over the Loup valley from higher ground, proximity to both Sophia Antipolis (15 minutes) and the coast (25 minutes), and a residential mix that has not been overrun by holiday rentals. For buyers seeking a primary or part-time residence with serious land, Châteauneuf at €8,705/m² in 2025 for houses sold for €1M or more, below Mougins, Biot and Valbonne, is one of the better quality-to-price choices in the sample. Our page on Châteauneuf-de-Grasse property covers its sectors, schools and access.

Full DVF transaction history for Châteauneuf-de-Grasse →

Le Rouret

Le Rouret is measured on a lower floor, because only 3 houses sold there for €1M or more in 2025. On houses sold for €700,000 or more, it recorded 92 sales over 2021-2025, a 2025 median sale price of €820,000 and a median €/m² of €6,349, with a change since 2021 of +22%. The 2024→2025 change was +3%, on 20 and 13 sales.

The line is steady: €5,222/m² in 2021, €5,827 in 2022, €5,893 in 2023, €6,135 in 2024 and €6,349 in 2025. The 2025 median sale price fell to €820,000 from €1,045,000 in 2024 while the price per square metre rose, which points to smaller houses in the 2025 sample rather than a weaker market. Because the floor differs, compare Le Rouret with the other seven towns only with that in mind: its €6,349/m² covers sales of €700,000 or more, not €1M or more.

Le Rouret’s appeal is straightforward: village authenticity without the Mougins or Valbonne brand premium, generous plots, schools that serve a stable family demographic, and a fifteen-minute drive to both Sophia and the autoroute. It is the commune that quietly attracts buyers who looked at Châteauneuf or Opio and wanted slightly more for slightly less. The +22% gain since 2021 on its €700,000 floor sits within the range of the other seven towns (+13% to +59% on €1M or more), suggesting the market is fairly priced rather than over- or under-reacting. Our page on Le Rouret property covers its sectors, schools and access.

Full DVF transaction history for Le Rouret →

Roquefort-les-Pins

Roquefort-les-Pins has 140 sales of houses at €1M or more over 2021-2025, the second-highest count after Mougins. The 2025 median sale price is €1,261,025, the lowest of the seven towns on that floor, and the median €/m² €7,440, with a change since 2021 of +16%, the second-lowest after Grasse. The 2024→2025 change was −12%, the largest fall in the sample.

The fall follows three years of gains: €6,407/m² in 2021, €6,847 in 2022, €7,589 in 2023 and €8,409 in 2024, before €7,440 in 2025 on 30 sales. Volume rose from 21 sales in 2024 to 30, and the median plot in 2025 is 2,950 m², so larger, land-heavy sales weigh on the price per square metre of building. The market is not following the steady climb of Mougins. It moves in steps, as thinner markets do.

Roquefort-les-Pins is central, roughly equidistant from Sophia Antipolis, Mougins, Valbonne and the coast, which makes it the default fallback for buyers whose first-choice commune got too expensive. At €1M or more, that fallback flow shows in volume (30 sales in 2025) more than in price, which fell 12% in the year. Roquefort in 2026 has the lowest median sale price of the seven towns at this level and large plots, and it is well placed if the surrounding markets hold at their current levels. Our page on Roquefort-les-Pins property covers its sectors, schools and access.

Full DVF transaction history for Roquefort-les-Pins →

What this means for the rest of 2026

Three patterns from the data are worth carrying into the back half of 2026.

The top of the market has not paused. At €1M or more, Mougins (+14%), Biot (+53%) and Valbonne (+6%) all rose in 2025, and Mougins crossed €10,000/m². Opio was flat (−1%) and Châteauneuf eased (−8%) after a 34% jump in 2024. None of these markets is in decline. Sellers in the deeper markets have the data on their side, and buyers who waited for the 2023 dip to last have seen it reverse. In the thin markets, Opio and Châteauneuf, one or two sales still move the median, so negotiate on the house, not the headline.

The value tier is not catching up at this level. Grasse (−9%) and Roquefort-les-Pins (−12%) both fell in 2025 on €1M+ sales, and since 2021 they rose least (+13% and +16%). Buyers redirected from Mougins and Valbonne keep volumes up, 30 sales in each, at prices per square metre well below the premium tier: Grasse sits at about 62% of the Mougins figure. That gap is the opportunity for a buyer who wants land and space for the budget. Le Rouret, on its €700,000 floor, rose 3%.

Biot is its own market. The +59% figure since 2021 and the +53% jump in 2025 rest on 10 to 22 sales a year, so they describe a thin top tier more than a whole commune. For buyers, this means Biot prices at €1M or more now sit at the top of the hinterland, close to Mougins, and the Biot transacting in 2025 is the estate and heritage end. Frame expectations accordingly.

One caveat bears repeating: DVF lags. The April 2026 release runs to the end of 2025, so sales signed in 2026 are not in these figures yet. The October 2026 DGFiP release will add the first half of 2026, and we will publish the Q3 and Q4 2026 updates once those numbers land. For the medians behind these readings, village by village, see the Hinterland Price Index.

Sources

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